Is gang violence falling, and what works against it?
Short answer: The Police counted 158 shootings in 2025, against 391 in 2022, the peak year. Bombings have not fallen in the same way: 194 detonations in 2025 is the most since the Police began counting in 2018. January to September 2026 there were 61 shootings, against 136 in the same months of 2025. The Police estimate that about 17,500 people are active in criminal networks, and more of the suspects are children. Since 2022 the Riksdag has passed around ten law changes against gang crime. None of them has yet been evaluated for its effect on crime.
More on the site: court queues, clearance, police officers and the prison shortage are on Justice.
Fewer shootings, more bombings.
The Police have counted confirmed shootings since 2017 and bombings since 2018. Brå counts all confirmed cases of lethal violence, and since 2016 how many of them involved firearms. Choose what the chart shows.
Shootings, killed and injured: Police, shootings and bombings, whole country. Killed and injured are counted in persons, and 2025 includes the attack at Risbergska school in Örebro. Detonations are completed bombings; the Police also count attempts and preparations, which were 59 and 255 in 2025. Lethal violence: Brå, Confirmed cases of lethal violence 2025 (report 2026:10) and table 20. Lethal violence counts cases, not shootings, so the curves from Brå and the Police measure different things.
Lethal violence in criminal milieus
- Cases per year in criminal milieus, 2013–2017
- 26
- Brå 2020:4, against 11 per year 2005–2012
- Fatal shootings that occur in criminal milieus
- 8 of 10
- Brå 2021:8, against 3–5 in 10 in the 2000s
- Share with firearms, 2018–2021
- over 90 %
- Brå 2024:7
- Cases solved, 2018–2021
- 26 %
- Brå 2024:6, against about 70 % for all lethal violence
Brå publishes no annual series for lethal violence in criminal milieus, only figures for periods. The rise since the mid 2000s lies almost entirely in that category, and that is also where the share of cases solved has fallen. Brå describes how the milieu changed in steps: hierarchical groups in the mid 2000s, area-based groups in the early 2010s, then fragmentation and in the 2020s individualisation, with perpetrators in their early teens.
Sweden compared with Europe
| Lethal gun violence per million inhabitants | Sweden | European average |
|---|---|---|
| All ages, latest years in the comparison | about 4 | about 1.6 |
| 20–29 years | 18 | 0–4 in most countries |
Brå compared 23 European countries. In 2014–2017 only Croatia was higher than Sweden; around 2000 Sweden had one of the lowest levels. Source: Brå, Lethal gun violence in Sweden and other European countries (report 2021:8). Brå on criminal milieus: report 2020:4, report 2024:7 and report 2024:6.
All lethal violence, the Nordic countries and research on punishment and reoffending are on Crime and punishment.
Loose networks, and ever younger perpetrators.
- Active in criminal networks
- about 17,500
- Police, situation report
- Linked to the networks
- about 50,000
- Police, situation report
- Shootings with killed or injured where a suspect was under 18
- over 60 %
- Police, annual report
- Completed bombings where a suspect was under 18
- 53 %
- Police, annual report
The Police describe the networks as mostly loosely composed, informal and changeable, though some are more organised. Of those active, 94 percent are men, the average age is 28 and 5 percent are under 18. The figures for 2025 cannot be compared with the 2024 figure of about 14,000 active, because the Police changed the method. The Police also write that violence as a service has become more common: the networks commission shootings and bombings from others, often young people recruited through social media.
| Measure | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evidentiary proceedings against children under 15 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 38 | 88 |
| 13–17-year-olds suspected of violence in criminal milieus | 198 | 318 |
Children under 15 cannot be convicted, but the prosecutor can bring evidentiary proceedings in court to test whether the child committed the crime. The 2025 figure for 13–17-year-olds runs to 2 December. Sources: Police, Situation report on active gang criminals 2025, the annual report 2025 and news 2025-12; Swedish Prosecution Authority, cases with evidentiary proceedings.
School and young people: Schools and Mental health.
The Police list, 2015 to 2025.
The Police designate areas where criminals have a negative impact on the local community. An especially vulnerable area is one where, according to the Police, residents often refrain from reporting crimes and testifying and where parallel social structures exist. The risk area category, between the two, was removed in 2025. The increase from 59 to 65 areas in 2025 is due, according to the Police, to areas being split, for example Rinkeby-Tensta into three, not to more areas being added. Of the 47 vulnerable areas, the Police followed up the development 2023–2025: 12 had developed positively, 4 negatively and 31 were stable.
| Year | Total | Especially vulnerable | Risk areas | Vulnerable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 53 | 15 | 6 | 32 |
| 2017 | 61 | 23 | 6 | 32 |
| 2019 | 60 | 22 | 10 | 28 |
| 2021 | 61 | No breakdown in the report | ||
| 2023 | 59 | 17 | 14 or 15 | 28 or 27 |
| 2025 | 65 | 19 | Category removed | 46 |
The 2023 report gives different breakdowns in two sections; the total of 59 and the 17 especially vulnerable are the same in both. The 2015 vulnerable areas are derived from the total. Sources: the Police situation reports 2015, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2023 and 2025.
The areas by municipality 2025
| Municipality | Especially vulnerable | Vulnerable |
|---|---|---|
| Borlänge | Tjärna Ängar | |
| Borås | Hässleholmen, Norrby | |
| Botkyrka | Alby, Fittja, Hallunda/Norsborg | Storvreten |
| Eskilstuna | Fröslunda, Skiftinge, Årby | |
| Göteborg | Bergsjön, Hammarkullen, Hjällbo, Lövgärdet | Biskopsgården, Gårdsten, Hisings Backa, Tynnered/Grevegården/Opaltorget |
| Haninge | Brandbergen, Jordbro | |
| Helsingborg | Dalhem/Drottninghög/Fredriksdal, Söder | |
| Huddinge | Grantorp/Visättra, Skogås, Vårby | |
| Järfälla | Sångvägen | |
| Jönköping | Råslätt | |
| Kristianstad | Gamlegården | |
| Landskrona | Karlslund | |
| Linköping | Skäggetorp | |
| Malmö | Nydala/Hermodsdal/Lindängen, Rosengård | Holma/Kroksbäck, Södra Sofielund/Seved |
| Nacka | Fisksätra | |
| Norrköping | Hageby, Navestad | |
| Sigtuna | Sigtuna/Valsta | |
| Sollentuna | Tureberg | |
| Solna | Hagalund, Hallonbergen | |
| Stockholm | Husby, Rinkeby, Tensta | Bredäng, Hagsätra/Rågsved, Hjulsta, Hässelby gård, Vårberg |
| Sundbyberg | Rissne | |
| Södertälje | Geneta, Hovsjö, Ronna | Fornhöjden, Lina, Saltskog |
| Trollhättan | Kronogården/Lextorp Norra | |
| Tyresö | Granängsringen | |
| Upplands-Bro | Finnsta | |
| Uppsala | Gottsunda | |
| Västerås | Bäckby | |
| Växjö | Araby | |
| Örebro | Vivalla | Oxhagen, Varberga |
The Police file gives the locality, not the municipality; the municipality is derived from the locality. Source: Police, vulnerable areas, the 2025 situation report and its map file. Where immigrants live and how it relates to housing is on Migration. How many live in areas with major socioeconomic challenges, municipality by municipality, is on Segregation.
Drugs, welfare and the labour market.
- The criminal economy per year
- SEK 100–150 bn
- Swedish Economic Crime Authority, situation report
- Money laundering in the financial system per year
- about SEK 130 bn
- Joint agency situation report
- The drug market per year, average 2017–2021
- SEK 4.5–11.3 bn
- CAN, report 210
- Incorrect payments from the welfare systems
- SEK 13–16 bn
- Swedish National Financial Management Authority,
The figures are estimates with wide ranges and overlap, so they cannot be added together. The Police estimate that 100 to 150 tonnes of drugs are smuggled into Sweden each year, and cannabis accounts for about 40 percent of the drug market's value according to CAN. The Swedish Economic Crime Authority estimates that labour market crime costs society SEK 120 to 150 billion a year. Of the incorrect payments from the welfare systems, about 90 percent are caused by the applicant, and of those, on average just over half are suspected to be intentional. How much goes to organised crime, nobody knows.
Since 2025, twelve agencies have jointly prioritised crime in ports, welfare crime and environmental and waste crime. On the municipalities, Brå writes that attempts by criminal groups to influence elected representatives and officials occur, but that it is not possible to say how common they are or how they have developed. So there is no figure for how many municipalities are infiltrated. A government inquiry into the resilience of municipalities and business is due by 30 September 2027.
Sources: Swedish Economic Crime Authority, situation report 2025; joint agency situation report 2025, which also cites the National Financial Management Authority's figures; CAN, report 210; Police, organised crime in the welfare system (2026); Brå, report 2025:4 on unlawful influence; dir. 2026:63. The Delegation against incorrect payments estimated in 2008 the errors at SEK 18–20 billion a year (SOU 2008:74).
Drug use and drug deaths are on Alcohol, drugs and gambling.
What works against gang violence?
For each measure we state how strong the evidence is, in four steps: strong (several consistent studies with good design), moderate (a few studies, or studies with weaker design), weak (few or no effect studies) and conflicting (the studies point in different directions). The assessment is ours, based on the sources.
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Sluta skjut and other versions of GVI
Evidence: moderate internationally, weak for Sweden. A systematic review of 24 studies, mostly from the US, found a moderate effect, largest for programmes targeting violent groups. The stricter the study, the smaller the effect. In Malmö shootings fell by about a quarter during the trial, but the decrease was not statistically significant, and Brå writes that the effect cannot be separated from other measures running at the same time. In Järva no clear decrease was seen.
Braga et al. (2019), Campbell Systematic Reviews. Brå (2025), Fewer shootings and bombings. Police, Sluta skjut.
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Exit programmes
Evidence: weak. There are no effect studies of Swedish exit programmes. The number of municipalities with state support for people leaving crime rose from 10 in 2020 to 52 in 2024, and an inquiry is reviewing responsibility for and oversight of private providers.
National Board of Health and Welfare, interim report on exit programmes. Government, dir. 2025:53.
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Summer jobs and mentors for young people
Evidence: moderate. In a randomised trial in Chicago, arrests for violent crime fell by 43 percent among young people given summer jobs. Mentoring programmes have a small but positive effect on crime according to a systematic review. Swedish effect studies are lacking.
Heller (2014), Science. Tolan et al. (2013), Campbell Systematic Reviews.
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Multisystemic therapy for young people
Evidence: conflicting. The method has shown effect in American studies, but a Swedish randomised trial found no advantage over social services' usual interventions.
Sundell et al. (2008), National Board of Health and Welfare.
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Longer sentences or a higher risk of getting caught
Evidence: strong that the risk of getting caught deters more than the length of the sentence. Brå writes in its consultation responses in 2025 that there is little evidence that harsher sentences reduce crime and no evidence that a lower age of criminal responsibility does. Longer sentences do, however, keep the convicted person from crime while in prison. In criminal milieus 26 percent of lethal violence cases are solved, against about 70 percent for all lethal violence.
Nagin (2013), summarised by NIJ. Brå, consultation responses on the sentencing reform and the age of criminal responsibility (2025).
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Secret coercive measures and intercepted encrypted networks
Evidence: weak as an effect study. When police in Europe gained access to the encrypted services Encrochat and Sky ECC, it led to over 6,500 arrests in Europe and hundreds of people detained in Sweden. How it affected crime in the longer run has not been evaluated.
Europol, Encrochat. Swedish Prosecution Authority, report on secret coercive measures 2025.
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Security zones
Evidence: weak. The Police have been able to decide on stop-and-search zones since April 2024 and had used five up to 2025. About 1,180 body searches and house searches were carried out there, and no weapons or explosives were found. The Police assess that the situation improved in the zones. Malmö University is evaluating the effect.
Police, report on security zones 2025.
Research on prison, reoffending, school and crime is on Crime and punishment.
What has changed since 2022, and what has been evaluated.
| Change | In force | Evaluated? |
|---|---|---|
| No sentence reduction for 18–20-year-olds for serious crimes (Govt. bill 2021/22:17) | 2022 | No |
| Reduced sentences for those who help investigate others' crimes (prop. 2021/22:186) | July 2022 | No, an inquiry is reviewing the rules |
| Harsher sentences for crimes in criminal networks and a new offence of involving children in crime (Govt. bill 2022/23:53) | 1 July 2023 | No |
| More preventive coercive measures, limited to five years (report 2022/23:JuU31) | 1 October 2023 | No |
| Security zones where the police may search without specific suspicion (Government) | 25 April 2024 | The Police report annually, Malmö University is evaluating |
| Anonymous witnesses (report 2024/25:JuU6) | 1 January 2025 | No |
| Secret data interception made permanent | 1 April 2025 | No |
| Secret and preventive coercive measures against children under 15, time-limited (Government) | 1 October 2025 | Reported annually |
| Criminal liability for preparation and conspiracy for more crimes | 1 July 2026 | No |
| Double sentences for crimes in criminal networks and some fifty harsher penalty scales (report 2025/26:JuU42) | 2026 | No |
| Age of criminal responsibility 14 for the most serious crimes for five years, and longer maximum sentences for crimes committed before age 18 (report 2025/26:JuU41) | 10 September 2026 | No, too new |
| Constitutional amendment making it possible to ban participation in criminal gangs | 1 January 2027 | No law yet |
We have found no effect evaluation of the changes by Brå, the Swedish National Audit Office or the Swedish Agency for Public Management. Brå has been tasked with following up the harsher penalty scale for murder from 2020. The latest changes according to the government's presentation 1 July 2026. Proposals that have not yet become law, such as a new sanctions system and harsher penalties for involving children in crime, are not included.
What the parties want.
| Party | In brief | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Centre Party | Supports harsher sentences and more tools for the police, but has opposed stop-and-search zones and anonymous witnesses on rule-of-law grounds. Emphasises prevention and exit programmes | Party website |
| Christian Democrats | Highlights harsher sentences, security zones and confiscation of criminal proceeds, wants to abolish automatic conditional release, and wants parenting support and police in schools | Party website |
| Liberals | Wants to combine harsher sentences and more surveillance tools with early interventions through school and social services and support for people leaving crime | Party website |
| Green Party | Puts early prevention first, SEK 1.5 billion for children at risk, together with more money for the police and asset seizures. Opposes locking up children | Party website |
| Moderates | Points to the double sentences for gang crime and wants to ban participation in criminal gangs, keep the preventive coercive measures after 2028 and be able to revoke citizenship | Party website |
| Social Democrats | Wants both harsher sentences, with a Swedish mafia law, and early interventions through social services. Has proposed a ten-year pact with the Moderates against gang crime | Party website |
| Sweden Democrats | Links gang crime to immigration policy and wants long or indefinite sentences, a ban on gang participation, deportation and revoked citizenship for serious crimes | Party website |
| Left Party | Sees welfare and prevention as the main way to reduce recruitment and doubts that longer sentences reduce crime. Wants Sluta skjut and exit programmes nationwide | Party website |
The parties' own descriptions in brief, retrieved in October 2026. The Centre Party's and the Left Party's pages were partly written before 2024.
Where the figures come from.
- Police: shootings and bombings per year since 2017 and 2018, the situation reports on active gang criminals and vulnerable areas, and the 2025 annual report.
- Brå: confirmed cases of lethal violence (table 20 and report 2026:10) and reports 2020:4, 2021:8, 2024:6 and 2024:7 on lethal violence in criminal milieus.
- Swedish Prosecution Authority: evidentiary proceedings against children under 15 and secret coercive measures.
- Swedish Economic Crime Authority, the 2025 joint agency situation report and CAN for the economy.
- Research: the studies linked under each measure. Law changes: Riksdag and government documents. Parties: the parties' own websites.
- All figures are entered by hand from the sources; nothing is calculated by us except the 2015 vulnerable areas and the breakdown by municipality.
More on crime and punishment on Crime and punishment, on immigration on Migration, on school on Schools, on mental ill-health on Mental health and on drugs on Alcohol, drugs and gambling.