Migration: who comes, who leaves and what it means

The studies measure the net contribution: taxes a group pays minus the public spending that goes to the group. The result depends on which year is studied, how long the immigrants have been here, whether defence and other shared spending is included and what is assumed about the future. That is why the figures differ, and the range is shown here.

1. National Institute of Economic Research 2025: slightly positive 2022

   Foreign-born people had a net contribution of 6 billion kronor 2022, 0.1 percent of GDP. Refugees had minus 22 billion (minus 0.4 percent), other foreign-born, including labour migrants, plus 28 billion (plus 0.5 percent). The net contribution was positive for most of the 1980s, negative from the 1990s and around minus 1 percent of GDP 2000 to 2015. Over a whole lifetime an average immigrant is estimated to contribute a present value of 1.5 million kronor, a refugee almost minus 1 million.

   Eisensee and Paues, National Institute of Economic Research, special study 117, June 2025 · research overview, special study 116

2. ESO 2018: refugees around minus 1 percent of GDP

   Joakim Ruist estimated in a report to the Expert Group on Public Economics (ESO) that refugees 2015 had a net contribution of around minus 1 percent of GDP, on average minus 74,000 kronor per person and year. Refugees contributed positively during parts of their lives, but not enough to cover the first years and the time after retirement. Critics, among them Sandro Scocco, have argued that it is redistribution between groups rather than a cost.

   Ruist, Tid för integration, ESO 2018:3

3. SOU 2015: minus 0.7 percent of GDP 2013

   Flood and Ruist calculated that the public sector 2013 redistributed 26 billion kronor from people born in Sweden to foreign-born people, 0.7 percent of GDP, mainly to people born outside Europe because of lower employment.

   Flood and Ruist, appendix to the Long-Term Survey, SOU 2015:95

4. OECD 2021: minus 0.8 or plus 0.7 percent

   In a comparison of 25 countries, the net contribution of foreign-born people in Sweden was minus 0.8 percent of GDP on average 2006 to 2018. Excluding shared spending such as defence it is plus 0.7 percent. The same data thus gives different signs depending on the definition.

   OECD, International Migration Outlook 2021, cited in the National Institute of Economic Research special study 117

5. Ekberg: redistribution of 1.5 to 2 percent of GDP

   Jan Ekberg calculated that redistribution to foreign-born people and their children was 1.5 to 2.0 percent of GDP in the late 1990s, after a positive contribution in the 1970s when labour migration was large.

   Ekberg (2009), cited in SOU 2015:95 and in the National Institute of Economic Research special study 117

On a higher grant for those who voluntarily move back, the Delegation for Migration Studies (Delmi) wrote 2025 that there is no scientific support that higher grants increase return migration; the Swedish National Financial Management Authority judged the effect hard to determine. Central government spending on migration, expenditure area 8, is 13.5 billion kronor 2026 according to the budget, see State budget.

Delmi, consultation response on A higher re-emigration grant, 22 August 2025 · Swedish National Financial Management Authority, consultation response, 21 August 2025 · Govt. bill 2025/26:1 expenditure area 8