How dependent is Sweden on petrol and diesel?

Petrol use has more than halved since 2004, as cars became more efficient and many switched to diesel. Diesel in turn was increasingly replaced by HVO, a diesel made from slaughterhouse waste, used cooking oil and forestry residues. In 2022, HVO was roughly a third of all diesel sold.

2024 reversed that. Parliament lowered the requirement for how much biofuel must be blended in, and HVO fell from 12 to 5 terawatt hours in one year while fossil diesel rose by 12. Electricity is growing steadily but is still small: an electric car uses about a third as much energy per kilometre as a petrol car.

Sweden has no oil production of its own, so all crude oil is imported. It is refined mainly in Lysekil and Gothenburg, and much of the petrol and diesel is then exported. That is why crude oil imports are larger than what Sweden itself uses.

Russian oil was long a large share. After the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, imports from Russia fell, and since the EU ban on seaborne Russian crude in December 2022 they have been zero. Norway now supplies about half. Diesel imported ready made comes mostly from neighbouring countries.

The reduction mandate requires sellers of petrol and diesel to blend in enough biofuel to cut emissions by a set percentage. It was meant to rise until 2030 and was the measure that cut transport emissions the most. Emissions from domestic transport fell by a third between 2010 and 2023.

The criticism concerned price and feedstock. HVO is more expensive than fossil diesel, and when the mandate was at its highest it made up a large part of the diesel price in 2022. Much of the feedstock came from other countries, including palm oil residues, and there were concerns that the demand pushed up biomass prices worldwide. The government therefore cut the mandate in 2024 to lower the price at the pump. The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency and the Swedish Climate Policy Council warned that Sweden would then miss its climate targets for 2030, and transport emissions rose by 21 per cent that year.

Parliament's target is for emissions from domestic transport, excluding aviation, to be 70 per cent lower in 2030 than in 2010. By 2023 they had fallen by about a third, mostly thanks to biofuels and more efficient cars. The increase in 2024 came almost entirely from diesel when the reduction mandate was cut.

Passenger cars account for more than half of road traffic emissions and heavy trucks for about a quarter. Since biofuels count as zero here, the emissions from growing and producing them do not show, nor do the emissions from making electric car batteries in other countries.

About half the price is tax. Energy tax and carbon tax are fixed amounts per litre, and 25 per cent VAT is added on top. That is why the price swings less in percentage terms than the oil price: when crude gets cheaper, the tax stays.

In 2022, diesel was more expensive than petrol, as the war in Ukraine hit diesel harder and the reduction mandate required a lot of HVO. Parliament has cut the tax on petrol and diesel several times since.

Among new cars, change was fast. In 2019, 4 per cent were electric, in 2023 almost 38 per cent. Diesel cars, which were half of new cars from 2010 to 2016, are now below 8 per cent. Plug-in hybrids have been around a quarter since 2020.

The fleet changes slowly. A car is often on the road for 15 to 20 years, so even if all new cars were electric it would take more than ten years before most cars on the road were.

Stockholm stands out, partly because many leasing companies and firms with company cars are based there. The car may be driven in another county but counts in Stockholm. The share is lowest in the sparsely populated north, where distances are longer, chargers fewer and the cold shortens range.

The battery is the most expensive part of an electric car, and its price has fallen by more than 80 per cent since 2013. That is the main reason electric cars have become cheaper and gained range. Batteries are cheapest in China; in Europe and the US they cost more.

Emissions from production have fallen too. IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute estimated in 2019 that a battery causes 61 to 106 kilograms of carbon dioxide per kilowatt hour, against 150 to 200 in its report two years earlier. How much depends mostly on the electricity in the factory.

There are no open statistics on how used electric cars hold their value; the prices are only in the car trade's own databases.

The first electric cars went about 13 Swedish miles (ten kilometres each). When Tesla and others with bigger batteries arrived in 2016, the median rose to over 35, and today the middle model goes almost 48 on a charge. Consumption has risen slightly, as many new electric cars are large, heavy SUVs.

In Swedish winter cold, range often drops by 20 to 40 per cent, as the battery and cabin must be heated. A heat pump in the car reduces the loss.

Most electric cars are charged at home or at work, and public chargers are needed mostly on long trips and for people living in flats. The number of public charging points has more than quadrupled since 2020. Fast chargers are fewer but growing faster, along the main roads.

The EU requires fast charging at least every 60 kilometres along the largest roads by the end of 2025. In the interior of Norrland, distances between chargers are still long.

The bonus cut the price of a new electric car by up to 70,000 kronor and was abolished at short notice in November 2022. Electric car sales levelled off in 2023 and 2024, and the share fell slightly in 2024. Supporters argued the bonus had done its job once electric cars were common, critics that it mostly went to high income urban households. The new subsidy in 2026 is therefore aimed at rural areas and low income households.

The starting electricity price is the household average including grid fee, energy tax and VAT, see The electricity price. Charging at home at night on an hourly tariff is often cheaper. Fast charging along the road often costs 5 to 8 kronor per kilowatt hour. Consumption should be counted from the wall, including charging losses.

Only fuel is counted here. An electric car usually costs more to buy but less to service, and depreciation and insurance differ more between cars than between fuels.

An electric car starts with a bigger debt than a petrol car, since the battery causes large emissions when it is made. The debt is paid off mile by mile, and how fast depends almost entirely on the electricity. With Swedish electricity the debt is paid after a few thousand Swedish miles; with coal power it can take the car's whole life.