Where does the state's money go?

The Swedish Agency for Public Management's economic breakdown of the appropriations 2009 to 2025 (CC0) ties each payment to the agency that made it and to what it is (wages, grants to municipalities, transfers to households …). An agency can therefore receive money from several appropriations in different expenditure areas. Agencies that pass money on, such as the Social Insurance Agency, carry the full amount even though the money goes to households.

Statistics Sweden's municipal accounts (OE0107), latest year, SEK per resident in current prices. General grants and equalisation are net: municipalities with a high tax base pay into the equalisation, so the figure can be negative. Targeted grants are money for a specific purpose, such as schools or refugee reception. The same figures are on each municipality's page.

Today's prices use CPI (Statistics Sweden). The tax krona splits the municipal and regional tax between municipalities and regions, and the rest (state tax, employer contributions, VAT) across the budget's groups in proportion to 2025 expenditure. In reality employer contributions mainly fund pensions and social insurance, so the split is a simplification. Parliament's pay is 349 members with employer contributions, about 0.45 billion SEK a year.

The Swedish Agency for Public Management's annual outturn per revenue title 2006 to 2025 (2025 preliminary). Gross taxes add up to about 2,700 billion SEK. Of that, roughly 1,300 billion goes on to municipalities, regions and the old-age pension system, and the state keeps the rest together with fees, dividends and EU grants. Settlements and accruals are not shown as separate rows.

Rules for 2026 from the Tax Agency's Amounts and percentages (SKV 433): basic allowance and earned income tax credit for someone under 66, average municipal tax 32.38 percent (Statistics Sweden), state tax 20 percent on income above the threshold of 643,000 SEK after the basic allowance, employer contribution 31.42 percent and the public service fee. The general pension contribution of 7 percent is not counted, since an equal tax reduction cancels it. VAT assumes the whole net salary is spent, split like an average household's basket (Statistics Sweden HUT 2021), where rent, health care and insurance carry no VAT. No burial or church fee.

The return is an assumption you choose, in kronor before tax, and the same every year. The tax is levied on the part above the threshold and paid out of the fortune at the end of the year. The threshold is not uprated for inflation. The calculator ignores anyone moving abroad, selling, giving away or reallocating assets to avoid the tax, and other taxes on the return. It shows what the tax does if nothing else changes.

There are no statistics on wealth after 2007, so the estimate starts from 2006. Then 200,788 people paid tax on about 397 billion SEK above the threshold; 54,141 of them had more than 4 million SEK, with about 242 billion above that threshold (SOU 2004:36, Statistics Sweden). The lower figure grows the tax base with prices (CPI), the higher with the size of the economy (nominal GDP). Wealth has probably grown more than that, but research also shows that the richest move or reallocate when the tax rises (Seim 2017, Jakobsen et al. 2020), and unlisted shares were exempt in 2006. The range is therefore a rough picture, not a forecast.

Income is disposable income per consumption unit (economic standard) including capital gains, for all persons. The shares for 50, 40 and 10 per cent are sums of Statistics Sweden's decile groups, and the top one per cent comes from its indicator table. Up to 2013 the figures come from the Household Budget Survey (HEK), from 2011 from the register based Income and Taxes statistics. The years 2011 to 2013 exist in both, and the gap between the lines there is the series break. Since 2020 Income and Taxes includes wages and pensions from the other Nordic countries, and since 2021 shared residence for children; Statistics Sweden has recalculated 2011 onwards the same way. 1992 to 1994 are missing in the source. Capital gains make the top jumpy: share sales in 2000, 2007 and 2021 show up as peaks.

Everything in billion SEK per year and static: nobody changes their behaviour, and effects on growth and employment are not counted. The taxes follow the Ministry of Finance's rules of thumb for 2026 (Calculation conventions): one percentage point of employer contribution yields 21.6 billion net and one percentage point of corporate tax 11.9. VAT (16 per percentage point) and state income tax (3.6) we derived from the ministry's tax bases. A large cut in state income tax is therefore only approximate.

Interest has no official rule of thumb. We take the debt of 1,244 billion times the change, divided by the average interest-rate fixation of 4.64 years: that much of the debt is refinanced the first year (Debt Office). After a few years the full change applies. The pay covers 349 members of parliament, the prime minister, the speaker and the ministers including employer contributions, about 0.5 billion SEK. The wealth tax is the midpoint of the range further down the page.

The spending slider takes the 2025 outturn for the chosen expenditure area or appropriation and changes it by the percentage; the whole change goes straight into the balance. That the agency hires fewer people, or that those who get the money spend less, is not counted.

The measures show the cost 2026. The reforms are taken from the reform table in the budget bill for 2026 (Bill 2025/26:1, table 1.1), where they are counted as the effect on general government finances, not only the central government budget. The tax expenditures are taken from the Report on tax expenditures 2026 (Comm. 2025/26:98, tables 2.6 and 2.7): what the special rule costs compared with a norm, for example full VAT or the same energy tax as on petrol. Removing a measure here gives back the whole cost at once. In reality it takes time, people change their behaviour, and some measures overlap each other and the expenditure areas above. The total is therefore an upper bound, not a forecast. The budget bill for 2027 comes after the election; the figures will be replaced then.

Inflation has no slider, on purpose. The Ministry of Finance gives only the direction (Calculation conventions 2026, the section on a changed price level): a higher CPI raises the basic allowance, the threshold for state income tax and several excise duties, so taxes bring in less than otherwise, and spending in the social security systems rises. The indirect effects come at the earliest the year after and are not included. No figure per percentage point exists there, in the Debt Office's forecast (Central government borrowing 2026:1) or in the budget bill, and a guess of our own would not be anchored in any official source. How inflation affects the budget is instead described in words further down the page.

The extra import cost is from Statistics Sweden's foreign trade in mineral oils (SITC 33) and gas (SITC 34): what Sweden paid for imports minus what exports brought in during a crisis year, compared with what the same tonnes would have cost and earned at the unit prices of the year before the crisis. Imports and exports are counted separately, since Sweden buys crude oil and sells refined products. Everything is converted to the latest year's prices with the CPI (Statistics Sweden). The tables start in 1977, so the 1973 crisis cannot be calculated here; 1977 to 1994 and 1995 onwards are two tables and may differ slightly at the join.

Crisis support in 2022 and 2023 is the electricity price compensation to households (8.9 billion kr, appropriation 2022), the gas price support and the electricity support to energy-intensive companies from the central government budget, the temporarily lower tax on petrol and diesel from May to September 2022 (3.9 billion kr in lost revenue, skr. 2022/23:101) and the 2023 electricity support to households (24.5 billion kr) and companies (18.2 billion kr), which was paid from Svenska kraftnät's congestion revenue, outside the budget's appropriations (Annual report of the central government 2023, skr. 2023/24:101). The fuel compensation was voted down by the Riksdag in 2022 and never paid out. The electricity support concerned the power price, not oil, but the power price rose because of the same gas crisis. The crisis around 1980 has no crisis support in the model: we have not found a compilation.

The GDP loss is your own assumption and starts at zero. The National Institute of Economic Research has not stated how much energy prices lowered GDP in 2022, and for the crisis around 1980 we have found no official figure.

Unit prices: an energy renovation of an oil-heated house from the 1940s with an air-to-water heat pump and eight other measures costs 417,000 kr (Swedish Energy Agency house guide, 2023), and an oil-heated house uses 2.1 cubic metres of oil a year on average (Swedish Energy Agency, energy statistics for one- and two-dwelling buildings 2016). Far fewer oil-heated houses remain than the sum would pay for. An electric bus costs 4.9 million kr and a diesel bus 2.5 million kr, and a city bus runs 62,500 km a year at 0.4 litres of diesel per km, about 25 cubic metres (Trivector 2023:9 for the Swedish Transport Administration). New onshore wind power costs 10,911 kr per kW and runs 3,221 full-load hours a year, about 3.4 billion kr per TWh a year (Energiforsk 2021:714). Klimatklivet has granted 19.0 billion kr to measures expected to cut emissions by 3.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide a year beyond what would have happened anyway (Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, Klimatklivet status report 2026).

Less oil is converted to tonnes at 0.85 tonnes per cubic metre and compared with net imports of mineral oils in the most expensive crisis year. Saved per year is that amount times the import unit price that year. The crisis if the transition had already been made reduces only the import part, by the same share. Unit prices are today's, also for the crisis around 1980. Everything is static: prices, behaviour and what would have happened anyway are not counted. Own scenario raises the latest year's net oil and gas bill by the percentage, for one year.

The European Commission's EU spending and revenue 2000 to 2025 (CC BY 4.0), converted to SEK at the year's average rate. The payment is the country's own resources including customs duties, which the country collects but which belong to the EU; 2025 is budgeted. Population is Eurostat's. The regions are the Commission's regionalisation of the cohesion funds and the rural development programme (cohesiondata, last seven years); direct payments to farmers are not included there.

Sida's disbursements by country and purpose from Sida's IATI reporting (iati.openaid.se) 1998 to 2025. Sida handles about half of expenditure area 7; the rest is mainly core support to the UN and the World Bank, which cannot be tied to a country. The latest year may grow as late reports come in.

Eurostat, general government expenditure by function (gov_10a_exp, COFOG), percent of GDP, CC BY 4.0. Countries report under the same rules, but what counts as public differs: where pensions or health insurance are run privately, public expenditure is lower.