The sea and fishing: the Baltic Sea, cod, quotas and marine plans

Nitrogen and phosphorus from farming, sewage and the air fertilise algae. When the algae die and decompose on the seabed, oxygen is used up, and in the deep basins the water rarely mixes. Every autumn SMHI measures how much of the seabed in the Baltic Proper, the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga has too little oxygen for fish and bottom fauna, below 2 millilitres per litre, and how much has no oxygen at all.

HELCOM, the environmental cooperation of the Baltic Sea countries, has set a ceiling on how much nitrogen and phosphorus may enter each sea basin. The chart shows how far inputs to the whole Baltic Sea were above the ceiling, adjusted for how much water flowed out of the rivers.

1. Almost the whole sea is eutrophic

   In HELCOM's latest holistic assessment, for 2016 to 2021, at least 93.8 per cent of the Baltic Sea did not reach good status for eutrophication. None of the 19 open-sea areas reached good status.

   HELCOM, Thematic assessment of eutrophication 2016–2021 (HOLAS 3), 2023

2. Phosphorus has fallen more than nitrogen

   Flow-adjusted inputs in 2023 were 33 per cent lower for phosphorus and 11 per cent lower for nitrogen than in the reference period 1997 to 2003. The ceiling is met for both nitrogen and phosphorus in the Gulf of Bothnia, the Kattegat and the Danish straits, but not in the Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Finland.

   HELCOM, core indicator Inputs of nutrients, 1995–2023, 2026

3. Oxygen deficiency has become more common

   Since 1999 the anoxic area has covered between 10 and 24 per cent of the seabed, against an average of 5 per cent in the period before. Hydrogen sulphide levels in the Gotland Deep are the highest ever measured.

   SMHI, Report Oceanography No. 80, 2025

SMHI, Oxygen Survey in the Baltic Sea 2024, table 1; share of the seabed. HELCOM, core indicator Inputs of nutrients, exceedance of the maximum allowable input (MAI) for the whole Baltic Sea, flow-normalised. Nitrogen and phosphorus from Swedish treatment plants are on Water and sewage.

Spawning stock biomass is the weight of all mature cod in the stock, as estimated by ICES, the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. The catch is what all countries together took from the eastern stock, landed and discarded. Since 2024 ICES gives only an index for the stock, so the biomass in tonnes ends in 2023.

1. The fishing ban of 2019

   In July 2019 the European Commission stopped directed fishing for eastern cod as an emergency measure, and the ban has been extended every year since. Directed fishing for western cod has been closed since 2021, and since 2025 recreational cod fishing is banned in the whole Baltic Sea. What remains is a quota for cod caught as bycatch.

   Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/1248; Commission proposal on fishing opportunities 2027, Council document ST 12522/26

2. Zero for the eighth year

   Since its advice for 2020, ICES has said that no eastern cod at all should be caught. The advice for 2027 and 2028, published in May 2026, is also zero. The cod are small and thin, and the stock is not recovering despite the ban.

   ICES Advice 2026, cod.27.24-32

3. More causes than fishing

   The government reports that ICES points to oxygen deficiency, lack of food, parasites from seals and predation by cormorants as reasons why the stock is not recovering. Russia has allowed directed cod fishing in its waters throughout.

   Government fact memorandum 2025/26:FPM116

ICES Stock Assessment Graphs, eastern cod (cod.27.24-32): catch from the 2026 assessment, spawning stock biomass from the 2023 assessment, thousand tonnes.

Baltic herring (strömming) is herring living in the Baltic Sea. It and sprat are fished mostly by large trawlers, and much of the catch becomes fishmeal and fish oil for feed. The chart shows spawning stock biomass and catch for the three large stocks. For herring in the central Baltic, ICES has since 2024 given only a ratio to the target level, so the tonnes end in 2022.

1. The trawl limit

   Today large trawlers may fish four nautical miles from the coast in the Baltic. Coastal fishers and several researchers argue that large-scale fishing depletes herring near the shore, while the pelagic fishing industry argues that the stocks are managed according to ICES advice and that the limit hits Swedish fishers who sell for human consumption.

   Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management, report on the assignment on a moved trawl limit, 2025

2. The 12 nautical mile trial

   Since 1 February 2025 pelagic trawling has been banned within 12 nautical miles from northern Öland up to the northern Baltic Proper, as a scientific project with a final report due on 30 April 2027.

   Government press release 23 January 2025

3. A permanent move

   On 1 September 2026 the government announced that it intends to move the trawl limit out permanently to 12 nautical miles from Skanör to Haparanda, around Öland and Gotland, for vessels over 24 metres using active gear. This requires the EU to change its regulation, and there is no start date.

   Government press release 1 September 2026

ICES Stock Assessment Graphs: herring in the central Baltic (her.27.25-2932, spawning stock biomass from the 2022 assessment), herring in the Gulf of Bothnia (her.27.3031) and sprat (spr.27.22-32), thousand tonnes.

Every spring ICES advises how much can be caught from each stock the following year. In October the EU fisheries ministers decide the total allowable catch for the Baltic, the TAC. The quota here is the EU's and Russia's combined. Where the advice was a range without a single value, it is missing from the chart. From 2020 the cod quota is for bycatch only.

1. Sweden voted no in 2025

   When the quotas for 2026 were decided in October 2025, Sweden alone voted no, arguing that the quotas for herring were too high.

   Government press release 28 October 2025

2. The quotas for 2027

   In October 2026 the quotas for 2027 were decided. The government writes that the Baltic herring quotas are well below the ICES range and that Sweden pushed the most restrictive line. Six countries, Sweden among them, also stated that seals and cormorants need to be managed.

   Government press release October 2026; Council document ST 14874/26

ICES advice sheets, history tables: eastern cod, western cod, herring in the central Baltic, herring in the Gulf of Bothnia and sprat, 2010 to 2026, tonnes. Eastern cod 2010 and 2012 to 2014 are advice on landings. 2018 to 2020 for herring and sprat is the catch at maximum sustainable yield within the management plan range. The Baltic herring quota for 2026 is the preliminary one. How the Council of Ministers makes decisions is on EU.

Catches by Swedish vessels in all seas, in live weight. Herring and Baltic herring count as the same species.

Number of vessels in the Swedish fishing fleet register at year end.

1. Mostly feed fish, mostly landed in Denmark

   In 2025 two thirds of the catch was feed fish, mostly sandeel and sprat, but it made up only 28 per cent of the value. The catch was worth about 828 million kronor. 65 per cent was landed abroad, mostly in Denmark.

   Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management, Commercial sea fishing 2025 (JO 55 SM 2601)

2. Fewer and larger

   When quotas in pelagic fishing became transferable in 2009, there were 81 vessels in that system. At the end of 2025 there were 28. Vessels in sea fishing numbered 879 at the end of 2025, against 1,273 in 2016.

   Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management, JO 55 SM 2601

3. The fishers

   In 2010 there were 1,495 licensed commercial sea fishers. Today there are about 1,200 commercial fishing licences at sea and 200 in the lakes. The fish processing industry has 347 companies employing just over 2,200 people.

   Sweden's reporting to the EU under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive 2012; Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management, description of the fishing sector, 2024

Eurostat, fish_ca_main (catches in live weight, all fishing areas) and fish_fleet_alt (fishing vessels), CC BY 4.0. Eurostat's register shows 761 vessels in 2024; the Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management reports 902 at the end of 2024.

Hunting and pollutants such as PCB and DDT almost wiped out the grey seal in the Baltic during the 1900s. Since hunting was banned and the pollutants declined, it has grown by about five per cent a year. The cormorant was almost gone from Sweden for much of the 1900s. Fishers report seals taking fish from nets and cormorants eating coastal fish, while researchers disagree on how large the effect on the stocks is.

1. Licensed seal hunting

   Sweden reintroduced protective hunting of grey seals in 2001 and licensed hunting in 2020. For the 2026/27 hunting year 1,350 grey seals may be shot, against 1,000 the year before.

   HELCOM, Population trends and abundance of seals, 2023; Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, decision 23 February 2026, according to TT

2. New hunting seasons from 2027

   From 1 July 2027 the cormorant hunting season becomes one and a half months longer, cormorants may be hunted all year in fisheries management areas, and seals may be hunted all year in fresh water.

   Government press release 20 August 2026

The number of nests is a minimum measure and cannot be converted into a number of birds. Grey seal growth was 5.1 per cent a year from 2003 to 2021 according to HELCOM.

The marine plans set out what different parts of the sea should be used for: shipping, fishing, nature conservation, defence and energy. The government adopted the first plans for the Gulf of Bothnia, the Baltic Sea and the North Sea coast on 10 February 2022. They designate areas for wind power that could produce 20 to 30 terawatt hours a year, and the Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management was tasked with finding areas for a further 90 terawatt hours. Each park is then assessed on its own, and outside territorial waters the government decides.

1. Defence against the need for electricity

   The Swedish Armed Forces have judged that parks in the Baltic interfere with radar, sensors and surveillance of the sea. The industry and several consultation bodies argue that the need for electricity in southern Sweden makes the parks important and that the interference can be managed.

   Government press releases 4 November 2024 and 16 July 2026

2. Who pays

   The inquiry SOU 2024:89 proposed a state auction system with two-way contracts for difference: the state guarantees a price and takes in the revenue when the market price is higher. The government says it is moving to auctions. In autumn 2023 the government removed Svenska kraftnät's task of paying for connecting the parks to the national grid.

   SOU 2024:89; government press release 16 July 2026; motion 2025/26:3594

Government, offshore wind, summary of decisions October 2026. Electricity prices and production are on Climate and energy.